Fan weblogs

Who's #1 in RPI? Most of you would probably guess Minnesota, and under this year's RPI, you're right. However, if the NCAA hadn't changed the RPI formula for the 2006 season, St. Cloud would be (how many guessed them?)

Obviously, changing the RPI formula is going to change the rankings. This post tries to dig into the details a little to figure out how.

RPI formula change

One of the biggest changes in the NCAA hockey selection criteria this year was the reweighting of RPI.

	Win percentage	Opponents' win percentage	Opponents' opponents' win percentage
New	.25	.50	.25
Pre-2006	.25	.21	.54

NCAA explanation

Over the last couple of years, the committee observed that the current RPI discourages teams from playing certain opponents because playing and winning against these opponents would significantly lower their RPI. The committee noticed that for many teams it was truly better to not play a contest at all than to play certain teams and win. These negative games (games that are won, but causes the RPI to decrease) may cause teams and conferences to reduce the number of games played outside of their leagues or to severely limit the ability of some teams to get quality non-conference games on their schedule. Another flaw with the current percentages is that a team could have wins against two teams that are ahead of it in the RPI, yet receive fewer points for one of the teams it defeated that is higher than the other team it defeated. During the 2005-06 season, there were 117 games out of 941 where teams would have been better off not playing than winning because of its negative effect on the RPI.

After working with the software developer of the RPI, the committee believes that the new formula can reduce the number of negative-impact games, while at the same time not change the order of teams in the RPI. The modification simply reduces the number of negative-impact games and rewards teams for competing. Had the recommended RPI been used in 2005-06, the number of negative games would have been reduced from 117 to four.

Their goal was to reduce the number of "negative" wins without changing the order of teams in the RPI. Then what's the point? Why tweak the formula if it's not going to change the order?

Everyone knows that a new formula is actually going to change the order. By taking a very small sample (two years) and carefully choosing a new formula that doesn't affect the order for that sample, the NCAA could more easily sell the change by claiming it doesn't change the outcome (again, though, what would be the point?)

The other criteria used to choose the new formula was minimizing the number of "negative" wins over the two year sample. Of course it's going to do that, for reasons I explain below, but not because of the carefully chosen percentages. Any shift in weight from opp% to opp-opp% is going to reduce the number of negative wins over the entire sample. Chosing the weights that minimized the number of "negative" wins for those two years is arbitrary at best, and it's unlikely to experience that level of success in future years.

Actual impact of the change

First, let's note an important attribute of the components of RPI. The opponents' win percentage (opp%) is an average. The opponents' opponents' win percentage (opp-opp%) is an average of that average. Therefore, the opp% is going to have a higher variance, and broader range, than opp-opp%.

Using the old RPI formula as of today, the opp% ranges from .4170-.6268. The opp-opp% ranges from .4418-.5615.

Who does worse?

Not surprising to see some WCHA and CCHA teams in there. They play pretty strong conference schedules, which can lead to a high opp%. However, why Wisconsin and not Minnesota? Why Michigan State not Michigan? Again, as explained above, high opp%.

Number of negative wins

As explained above, the change should reduce the number of negative wins, as the NCAA hoped. However, that's not because their carefully calculated weightings have some special meaning in analysis of college hockey schedules, rather its simply because they increased the importance of opp-opp% relative to opp%.

The NCAA boasted that the new percentages would have resulted in only 4 negative wins in the previous seasons (not shocking, since they were chosen to minimize that number). At this point in this season there are 9. That's a significant reduction from the 117 for the previous year under the previous formula, but demonstrates that choosing the peculiar percentages that absolutely minimized the number over the past two seasons was a bit of a waste. How about .25-.25-.50?

I wouldn't be surprised to see this number fall a little from 9 before the end of the regular season, but expect any such gains to be wiped out in the conference tournaments.

Conclusion

Though "strength of schedule" still comprises 75% of RPI, it's now heavily weighted toward the lower variance opp-opp%. That diminishes the importance of strength of schedule relative to the importance of the win%. As hinted at as a goal in the NCAA text above, teams from top conferences now have less incentive to build a strong schedule and more incentive to build a schedule in which they maximize their win%.

Though I'm not intentionally a twice-a-year blogger, you can always count on a roadtrip report and a summary of the WCHA season kick-off press conference.

Below are highlights of the conference-wide announcements, N.D. coach Hakstol's comments, and a few other selected commments I found interesting. Everything here should be construed as a summary of my interpretation of statements; it certainly contains no direct quotes and is quite likely to contain factual errors.

Doug Spencer (Associate Commissioner for Public Relations)

Bruce McLeod (Commissioner)

Greg Shepherd (Supervisor of Officials)

Mike Eaves - Wisconsin

Q. After the championship season, I assume interest is high in Madison?
A. 22-23000 season tickets sold of a possible 30000 [Note - Wisconsin splits series into two tickets packages]. Student season tickets sold out.

Q. You obviously have the best goaltender, who's second best?
A. St. Cloud, Bobby Goepfert.

Q. Who did you vote for in the coaches' poll?
A. Minnesota to win. Duluth is my second pick that a lot of other people might not have had right up there.

Dave Hakstol - North Dakota

We've had the benefit of a full practice and the exhibition game against Manitoba. We're a very young team, with a theme of development. Right now, we have 18 freshmen and sophomores on our roster out of 25 eligible players.

The first month of our schedule is extremely challenging, so we need to get some things set in place in a hurry. There are a lot of new opportunities on our team. In goal, we feel Phil is ready to step up, but there are opportunities for the freshmen. Up front, Toews and Oshie are returning but they have to step up and prove they can lead up there. We're solid on the blue line with some experience and Bina and Chay Genoway joining in.

Q. Looking over your roster, you could lose a lot of guys next year like other teams did this year.
A. [interrupts] We lost five guys this year.
Q. Ok, what impact do you think the new NHL CBA will have?
A. Five years from now we'll be able to tell. What we saw this summer had something to do with the new CBA, and some with the tremendous quality of players in the league. Whether that trend will continue or be a one or two year impact, we can't answer.

Q. Bina came back and had that great ovation the other night, what can he bring to the team?
A. Robbie means so much to our hockey team. Though he didn't play the last month of 04-05 or at all last year, he was a big part of the team in the locker room. The stability he brings, not only to the locker room, but now also the ice, is very important.

Q. Have you found a new guy that you've been particularly impressed with so far, your team has always been able to find new guys?
A. We all have good players within our programs. It's a matter of opportunities. Sometimes that's all it takes, for a player to have that opportunity to step into a line that's expected to score every night and they can take advantage.

Q. Along those lines, you mentioned Lamoureux. Can he be that #1 guy?
A. History can sometimes predict the future to a certain degree. Phil has been most effective when he can begin as the #1 guy. He has some competition, but he's starting as the #1 guy and can take that ball and run with it. He's played in a lot of big games and tough games and has performed well. Phil is ready physically and mentally to step into that role.

Q. Talk about the loss of Brad Berry.
A. Tough guy to lose personally, he's such a good friend. We're happy for him, he's excited about his new role with the Manitoba Moose. He had such a great relationship, 1 on 1, with all the players. He did a tremendous job with the individual development side of all of our players, forwards and goaltenders as well. That's an element we were trying to replace in hiring Dane Jackson.

Q. Talk about Dane.
A. He's excited to be back in North Dakota. He brings huge enthusiasm to the rink. As so many good young players come in, sometimes not for a long period, individual development is critical -- not only for them individually but for the team.

George Gwozdecky - Denver

The only thing I liked of the experimental rules were the two referees and two linesmen. The rest can be thrown in the garbage can, as far as I'm concerned.

[interrupts when a Twins report can be heard in the background] Who hit a home run? Seriously, stop. I want to know who hit a home run? [Repeats a few times until someone answers, Frank Thomas]

Q. There's been a lot of talk about young teams this year.
A. [interrupts] We say that every damn year. I feel like hanging the phone up when I hear these guys complaining about young teams. That's part of coaching. It is what it is. Do we recruit differently? No. We don't look at if a kid's a 2 or 4-year player, we look for a talented character player who can contribute well. When he leaves is up to him.

Q. Is CC going to be as bad as everyone says?
A. Who says that?
Q. You know, people in Colorado.
A. Colorado Springs? Any time you don't give a proud team like the Tigers the respect they deserve, you're taking a risk. They lost Sterling and Sertich, but I don't doubt they'll be right in the hunt the second half. I've never been a big believer in the pre-season coaches' poll. They'll sneak up on a lot of teams this season.

Scott Owens - Colorado College

Q. Is there a benefit to guys leaving early, does it help with recruiting?
A. I think it helps overall. These kids' goals and aspirations are to play professional hockey. Where are they going to get an opportunity to play and develop and move on to the next level. We use that to a certain extend and kids are dialed into that.

Dave Shyiak - Alaska Anchorage

Q. Have you considered holding games earlier than 7pm (Alaska time) to get more nationwide media exposure? By the time you play your games, it's so late East of Denver.
A. We want to schedule our games to the best benefit of the people here. If we want more outside media exposure, we need to move up in the standings. That would be the best way.

Posters on the "Panther Nation" message board report that local Iowa media are suggesting that UND may be the favorite to fill a hole in Northern Iowa's football schedule on September 9, 2006. Other reports indicate that UNI's coach has suggested North Dakota as a likely opponent at both booster functions and in a radio interview.

Though North Dakota has not yet released its 2006 football schedule, Mesa State's schedule shows that they expect the Sioux to visit Grand Junction on September 9.

Though Northern Iowa is a top I-AA team in the Gateway Football Conference and UND is a D-II team, the Panthers are no strangers to the Sioux. Northern Iowa was a member of the North Central Conference until 1977, when they reclassified as Division I. The teams have met 38 times between 1936 and 1978, with Northern Iowa holding a 25-13 edge over the Sioux.

This is a rambling report of my experiences as a fan at the Frozen Four. I never feel that I have much to add in the way of serious game analysis, and these games are among the few that get serious extensive media coverage. If you're looking for news and analysis of UND's game, try SiouxSports.com's hockey news links.

Milwaukee... the Frozen Four I'm definitely not going to

Though I've frequently gone to Frozen Fours as vacations, this was another year that I pledged not to go (as successful as my same pledge last year). I didn't particularly need another vacation in Milwaukee (I lived in Madison for many years).

I was out at the local Sports Pub when Holy Cross scored an overtime goal to defeat Minnesota and advance to the second round of the playoffs. At that moment I briefly realized that if North Dakota beat Michigan, the Sioux would likely advance to Milwaukee, yet again forcing an unplanned Frozen Four trip upon me.

While Columbus was an easy last minute trip, being just a 6 hour drive from home, Milwaukee is a more formidable 800 miles. Fast-forward two days and I've booked three rooms at a Doubletree on the edge of town and have a miserable 6:30am flight on Thursday morning. I noticed when booking that it didn't let me choose seats for a couple of my flights, which I considered somewhat ominous.

Thursday, the 21 hour day

6:00am ET Though I did not yet realize it, I wasn't the only Milwaukee-bound hockey fan on my first leg to Detroit. Upon arriving at the gate at Detroit for my second leg, there was little question I was among hockey fans. The waiting area was a sea of hockey fans from same teams you see every year, regardless of Frozen Four participants -- North Dakota, Maine, Minnesota. The rules of engagement were the uneasy truce that exists between college hockey fans on a Frozen Four pilgrimage -- I was genuinely happy to see Maine fans, and wished B.C. fans well, though I only meant it in a "I hope none of your players get maimed" sort of way. As predicted by my inability to reserve a seat, the flight was overbooked and NWA tried several times to secure volunteers by offering free tickets and vouchers. No one in the crowd seemed interested in the 3pm alternate flight at any price; if only they had offered a 12pm flight, I think they could have saved a lot of money.

11:00am CTThanks to proximity to Grand Forks, the Thursday pregame party at The Buckhead Saloon was the largest I've ever seen. Ryan Bakken, of the G.F. Herald, agreed.

"They told me that UND traveled well and that's obviously not a joke," Buckhead Manager Victoria Moran said. "They also told me that they drink well and that's not a joke, either.

"They told me to expect 600 and be prepared for more. We were prepared, thank God."

The band played, O'Keefe spoke, Buning spoke. As usual, O'Keefe managed to find a former Sioux athlete celebrity to call up to the stage, UND's only Hobey Baker award winner, Tony Hrkac. I had met one friend at the Milwaukee airport, but was at least a little worried because our tickets were en route from Minneapolis with my brother, who had left just that morning. Given the dire warnings about I-94 construction, and having seen the Milwaukee construction myself, we were somewhat concerened about the travel time. My brother came through and arrived in plenty of time for the game.

<rant>Milwaukee is a fine traditional city to host the Frozen Four, but no major tournament should ever be hosted in a city with such a ridiculous amount of construction underway. The Bradley Center was inaccessible from the West, few river crossings were available, and getting around would have been a downright disaster if not for NeverLost.</rant>

2:00pm CT At the end of the 1st, I thought the Sioux could still do it after outplaying B.C. for a period but being down 0-3 to show for it. I really thought the Sioux had this when they came out hitting in the 2nd. A disappointing outcome to say the least -- the Eagles just managed to capitalize and score on each Sioux mistake.

Rest of day Between games we drowned our sorrows at BW-3 on Water Street. Despite the weekend having just begun, they were mysteriously out of every beer we ordered. I ordered a Miller Lite and suggested that if they were out of that, they could just run down the street to get some more; the waitress wasn't amused.

As we were heading back for the 2nd game, it became obvious that most Sioux fans weren't. I can't really blame UND fans, especially students, for converting their in-demand Wisconsin tickets to cash, but the Sioux population dramatically thinned for the remainder of the weekend. This was the most disappointing part of a first game elimination -- I felt like I met 1/10 the Sioux fans that I did in Columbus. Because Columbus had a slightly smaller Sioux fan contingent, because there were fewer places close to the arena to drink, and because the fans were still around and excited on Friday, I met a ton of Sioux fans and felt like part of a close Sioux community. I missed that on this trip where everything seemed spread out and there were just a handful of Sioux fans scattered about.

The Maine-Wisconsin game was either a snoozer or I was still in a funk; the red tide of the crowd was certainly into it. My brother and I left right after the game and drove out to our hotel. A quirk of flying in Thursday morning is that, despite staying at the hotel for 3 nights, the Sioux had already been eliminated by the time we checked in. A quick nightcap at the local T.G.I.Friday's pushed my awake counter past the 21 hour mark.

Friday -- hope you weren't planning on popping in at the brewery

I felt almost sorry for the poor guy behind the desk at the Miller Brewery. Stories of expensive cab rides to get there, complaints about how Miller had promised that no reservations were needed, and pleas for "sneaking just us in" only seemed to anger the desk guy. I think he was having a very long day. I overheard one employee explaining to some turned away tourists that if only Miller had known it would be so busy that day, they would have had more employees around. Apparently they didn't get the memo that a hockey tournament was in town. We also stopped by the Sprecher Brewery, which I've visited in the past, and they reported that their tours were booked for the day but that a 3:00pm reservation was available for Saturday.

Having failed miserably at finding any way to fill the day (baseball game at 7pm or leaving town weren't really options because one of our group had actually managed to get there on a work trip, so had to work during the day Friday), we stopped at the Water Street Brewery to regroup and plot. A few more Wisconsin beers later, my brain came up with the perfect Wisconsin activity -- bowling. The waiter pointed me toward what proved to be an ideal dive bowling alley / pool hall / video game hall / bar. Pure Midwest, pure fun, great way to blow a few hours. I played pinball, I bowled, I played pool, I even tried the Dance Dance game. Did I mention that beers were $2.

Expecting our friend soon, we made our way back to the Bradley Center neighborhood and camped at Lucille's Rockin' Pianos. I've only been to a couple similar places (one in Jamaica, and then that piano bar in New York, New York in Las Vegas), and it was an awesome time. My friend showed up, we kept hanging out, had a nice chat with the tournament's chief official (BTW -- I have absolutely no complaints about the weekend's officiating), and pretty soon realized we had made to about midnight without yet having eaten. We rolled back toward the hotel but Friday's kitchen closes at midnight. We rolled on to Perkins and I definitely felt like I was home again.

Saturday -- brewery reservations pay off

Made the Miller and Sprecher tours. Both were awesome. I love small, craft breweries, and have always had a lot of respect for Sprecher and love their tasting room. We stuck around long after they had kicked everyone out of the tasting room and chatted with the employees about beer. I had never been on the Miller tour before, and left quite impressed with the attention to quality they actually pay to the massive amounts of beer they ship and the heritage of the product and brand. The tasting room was a little funny, because unlike at most brewery tours, sampling Miller Lite, MGD, and Miller High Life isn't a bold exploration. Miller's tour's opening video was fun instead of serious. It opens with a historic seeming landscape and booming voice announcing, "Since the dawn of time, man has longed for..."; which we all expected to be followed with a suitably somber "refreshment", or perhaps even "beer", but laughed out loud when the voice ripped, "Miller Time!" and the party began. Pretty girls were in bars, guys were moving couches, and it was always Miller Time.

Went to Mader's German restaurant by the Bradley Center for lunch. The gentleman talking to the Maitre'd in front of me expressed how impressed he was with the menu, noting that he lives in Germany and it was identical to those he saw locally. Knowing we had to make Sprecher at 3:00pm, just 2 short hours aways, we opted to sit at the bar. Surprisingly, we needed the entire two hours as the bartender explained, "we don't have enough staff, we had no idea it would be this busy". Apparently they didn't get the memo about the hockey tournament, either. At least he bought me a drink.

I did stop by the Cheese Mart and picked up a 9-year cheddar. It's been great. Unfortunately, the long wait at Mader' interfered with my attempt to pick up some great Usinger's sausage, another Wisconsin staple.

Badgers won, woohoo. Our first stop wasn't quite crowded enough, so we rolled on and celebrated with Badger fans. Opponents' fans are always happy to party with you when they've just won.

Sunday -- Jim eats dirt

Our flights weren't actually until 5pm so we went to the Jelly Belly factory. The tour consists of riding a train around the outside walkways of a storage room. I understand the train was supposed to be kid friendly, but that goal is inconsistent with the long videos and how many kids are really interested in your box inventory?

It's that time of year again, the WCHA season kick-off press conference was this morning, October 4. I'll highlight the conference-wide announcements and N.D. coach Hakstol's comments. Everything here should be construed as a summary of my interpretation of statements; it certainly contains no direct quotes and is quite likely to contain factual errors.

Officiating

The NCAA encouraged the continuation of last year's efforts to open up the game. Last year's efforts dramatically reduced holding by the back boards and clutching and grabbing and the league will continue those efforts this year. The league wants all teams to be able to play the game and skate openly, not just the top couple teams. Officials will focus on letting players skate through the neutral zone without being held up by sticks and plan to call penalties consistently through the end of the game, not putting the whistle away with five minutes left.

Rule changes

Video replay

Video replay will be used throughout the WCHA this season to review goals. It was used in an experimental manner last year in Denver and Colorado Springs and met with great success. Though it would normally require a three year evaluation period, the WCHA petitioned the NCAA to allow video replay and it is allowed for in this year's rule book. Other leagues will be watching the WCHA to note the system's success.

Starting the last weekend of October, each rink will have a replay person and monitor. The replay person will be in the press box and will operate the replay monitor located in the penalty box area. Only the referee may call for a replay and the replay person will display the desired footage on the on-ice monitor. The replay person will not provide and input on the replay and cannot suggest a replay. Coaches and players cannot call for replays. Finally, the replay system will only be used to review goals, not penalties or any other plays.

Replays should be non-intrusive, taking 30-45 seconds unless there's a malfunction. A new system this year, there may be some technical difficulties, but those will be resolved.

Coach Dave Hakstol

We have some challenges this year, there 13 returning players and 13 freshmen. We do have some quality returning veterans who should be able to lead on the ice and, more importantly, off the ice. We haven't voted yet for captains but plan to do that later today, so expect that announcement this evening.

Goaltending will have to be a stabilizing factor for us. Our veteran goaltenders, Parise and Lamoureux should be able to add stability; we can't ask them to win games for us single-handedly, but they should be able to give confidence to the young defensemen in front of them.

The defense will be young. Expect 4 freshmen defensemen in the lineup each night. We have a couple good veterans, Smaby should be a good leader for the defense and the team overall.

There will be a nice mix in the forwards. There will be 5 or 6 freshmen in the lineup each night, but it's less worrisome in that position because we should be able to get a good mix.

There are only 2 seniors on the roster. History shows that experience is a big plus, not necessarily required, but a big plus. Our goal for the season is to make the Western Regional tournament in our own town.

Q. Reports have been out the last couple weeks about your NCAA appeal. How do you make that not a distraction? How will that affect you if you make your regional?
A. I'm not going to presume we'll make the regional. It's not a distraction, our job is to win hockey games. We're proud to be the Fighting Sioux of the University of North Dakota. That is who we are, and our administration is doing a tremendous job of handling that issue.

Q. Quick update on Robbie?
A. He will not play this year. He is with the team, will remain with the team, but will medically red shirt this year. He will reevaluate 6-7 months from now for the future.
Q. Does that mean he can't pracitce?
A. He's been cleared to practice, clear to work out, but cannot be involved in any sort of contact.

Q. You've been around the league for quite a few years, how has it changed? The last few years... is it more competitive?
A. I would agree with forecasts of the league being better than last year. Prime example, the Hobey Baker winner, best in the nation last year, is returning to our league this year. Our league also has the top recruiting classes in the country. By Christmas the league is going to be tremendously exciting.

Q. As a participant in the Frozen Four last year, comment on four teams from the conference making the tournament last year. No one has even mentioned it today, you guys seem to be avoiding it?
A. We're all focused on and concerned about what we're doing today. Columbus was several months ago, everybody's looking forward to this year and focused on similar success in the upcoming season. Nobody is looking too far down the road, everyone is worried about building their team and developing their team for this season because the league is going to be extremely competitive.